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In the oil industry, there is excitement about Trump’s drill-baby-drill ethos. There’s also a sense that a bullet has been dodged, as Big Oil feared Democrats’ willingness to impose tough restrictions.

“A knife heading towards the throat of the industry has been kicked away,” said Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House adviser to President George W. Bush.

President Joe Biden’spause on exports of liquefied natural gasrattled fossil fuel executives and raised concerns about a permanent ban and further restraints, according to McNally.

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“It’s always hard to bring down prices,” Trump said during a press conference at Mar-a-Lago earlier this month. “But we’ll bring them down, we’ll get them down. Energy is going to bring down prices. We’re going to have a lot of energy.”

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It’s not clear that US output can go dramatically higher. Besides, if production goes too high, it could crash the oil market with a supply glut.

Oil executives are not signaling they’re willing to shell out the big bucks required to spike oil production. They remain laser-focused on heeding investor demands to return excess profits to shareholders through fat dividends and generous share buybacks.

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Just 14% of oil and gas executives plan to significantly increase capital spending this year, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallassurveyof 132 firms. More executives say they plan to cut spending than ramp it up.

Even after Trump’s victory, two-thirds (66%) of the executives saidthey don’t plan to increase investmentrelative to before the election.

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“We have this incredible American energy opportunity,” API CEO Mike Sommers told 【 - Free Predictions 】 in a phone interview. “If we get the policies right, we can continue to be the world leader in energy production.”

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“We would be concerned about what tariffs mean for American consumers. I think the president shares that concern,” Sommers said.

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“The industry is bracing for hostile policy and uncertainty, possibly for the entire administrative term until January 2029,” analysts at BloombergNEF warned in a report after the election.

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“That’s false. It doesn’t make any sense,” Ben Backwell, CEO of the Global Wind Energy Council, an international trade group, told 【 - Free Predictions 】 in a phone interview. “Are we concerned? Of course we are. I’m concerned when anyone comes out and says negative things about our industry and I’m concerned when disinformation is allowed to spread.”

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“It doesn’t seem plausible to me that he could ban all wind development in the United States,” said Derrick Flakoll, North American policy associate at BloombergNEF.

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Leading wind power generation companies like GE Vernova, Orsted and Total Energies have already signaled plans to dial back or reconsider offshore wind projects.

Yet some clean energy executives are expressing hope that Trump will see how clean energy fits well within his themes of energy dominance, US manufacturing and energy security.

“Politicians campaign in rhetoric, but when they make decisions about policy it tends to be more nuanced,” said Frank Macchiarola, chief policy officer at the American Clean Power Association, which represents wind, solar, clean hydrogen and other clean energy companies.

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One new headache clean energy didn’t have to grapple with during the last Trump administration: High interest rates.

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Of course, the oil industry is unlikely to protest if other parts of the IRA are repealed, including tax incentives that primarily benefit solar, wind and renewables broadly.

Yet somestates that Trump won, including Nevada, Wyoming, Kentucky and Georgia, have enjoyed the most clean energy investment as a percentage of GDP,according to researchers.

“A lot of that money is going to red districts,” said Sagatom Saha, adjunct research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

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