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Fossil fuel pollution is set to rise to 37.4 billion metric tons this year, an increase of 0.8% from 2023, areport found. Global emissions from coal, oil and gas are all projected to increase.

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“The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked,” said Pierre Friedlingstein, a climate professor at the University of Exeter, who led the study, published Tuesday by the Global Carbon Project, a consortium of scientists.

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Fossil fuel pollution needs to roughly halve over this decade to keep global warminglower than 1.5 degrees Celsius, a threshold countries have pledged to try to stay below in the Paris climate agreement.

Climate change is already having catastrophic impacts. But scientists warn that at 1.5 degrees, it begins to exceed the ability of humans and the natural world to adapt — including potentially triggeringdevastating climate tipping points.

Humanity has already lived through12-month periods above this critical climate limitbut scientists are more concerned about longer timeframes. Tuesday’s study estimates that at current rates of emissions, there is a 50% chance the world will breach 1.5 degrees consistently in about sixyears.

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“Time is running out,” Friedlingstein said, adding, “world leaders meeting at COP29 must bring about rapid and deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions.”

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