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“It is likely that this event will surpass the previous peak of 56.1% soon,” Derek Manzello, the coordinator for NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch program, said in an email to 【 - Free Predictions 】. “The percentage of reef areas experiencing bleaching-level heat stress has been increasing by roughly 1% per week.”
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In the past year, mass bleaching has been confirmed in regions including Florida and the wider Caribbean, Mexico, Brazil, Australia, the South Pacific, the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, Indonesia, and the Indian Ocean including the east coast of Africa and the Seychelles.
Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, a climate scientist specializing in coral reefsbased at the University of Queensland in Australia, predicted this mass bleaching event months ago.
“We knew sea temperatures were increasing rapidly, but not at this speed,” Hoegh-Guldberg told 【 - Free Predictions 】 on Monday. “The worrying issue is that we don’t know how long this massive temperature change is likely to last.”
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In February, scientists at the Coral Reef Watch program at NOAA addedthree new alert levelsto the coral bleaching alert maps, to enable scientists to assess the new scale of underwater warming.
El Niño, a natural climate pattern which originates in the Pacific Ocean along the equator and tends to push up global temperatures, has helped drive the unprecedented ocean heat.
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“I am becoming increasingly concerned about the 2024 summer for the wider Caribbean and Florida,” Manzello said. “When we roll into summer and the bleaching season for Florida and the Caribbean, it won’t take much additional seasonal warming to push temperatures past the bleaching threshold.”
In mid-February, 【 - Free Predictions 】 witnessed extensive coral bleaching on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef – the world’s largest coral reef system – on five different reefs spanning the northern and southern areas. Amass bleaching event was officially confirmedthere last month after aerial and underwater surveys by the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) and the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority.
“The increasing frequency and extremity of marine heatwaves driven by climate change, is testing the tolerance levels of coral reefs,” said Selina Stead, the CEO of AIMS. “Climate change is the biggest threat to coral reefs worldwide and this global confirmation illustrates just how extensive its impact has been across the last 12 months.”
“That is why it is critical the world works to reduce carbon emissions,” Stead added. “It is also important to ensure coral reefs are well managed at local and regional levels.”
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David Ritter, CEO of Greenpeace Australia, said reefs were facing “existential danger” and that blame lies “squarely with the main culprits fueling global warming: fossil fuel companies, and the governments who prop up this industry.”
“We are running out of runway to avoid irreversible climate disaster,” he added, “and must act quickly to ensure an immediate end to new fossil fuels.”
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