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Fall and winter months present more opportunities for H5N1 to spread and change since both cows and other flu viruses will be on the move. While most human infections in the current outbreak have been mild and self-limiting, each new host gives the virus a chance to get better at infecting people.

“To be clear, we have no evidence so far that this virus can easily infect human beings or that it can spread between human beings easily in a sustained fashion,” said Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo, director of the Pandemic Center at the Brown University School of Public Health. “If it did have those abilities, we would be in a pandemic.

“The second we know that someone gave it to someone else relatively easily, that’s a new pandemic, and it will be around the globe, probably in a matter of weeks,” Nuzzo said at a seminar hosted by the Health Coverage Fellowship.

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Few details have been released. The person had “significant underlying health conditions” that probably made them more susceptible to the infection, Dr. Nirav Shah, principal deputy director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Thursday.

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How is the market cap and valuation of Raj Television Network Limited (532826) ✌️【Financial Expert】✌️ Get accurate stock forecasts and market predictions from top financial advisors. With real-time updates on stock indices, exchange rates, and futures data, you'll be equipped to make profitable decisions and grow your capital steadily. Additional testing by the Missouri State Public Health Laboratory confirmed that the person had a type of H5 flu, which is an uncommon subtype. Only 13 other H5 infectionshave been reported in humansin the US this year. Aside from the Missouri case, all have been in farm workers who had been in direct contact with infected birds or cows.

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“The data that we do have and that have been generated thus far show an H5 virus that is closely related to the H5 virus circulating among dairy cows,” Shah said.

Investigators have also interviewed the patient and are tracing their recent contacts. There’s no indication that the person passed the infection to anyone else, and there’s no unusual flu activity in the area where the person lives, Shah said.

“Seeing that someone is in the hospital with possible H5N1 heightens my worry,” Nuzzo said. “It not only heightens my worry for the farm workers,” who are most at risk from infection, she said, “but it also heightens the worry that this we’re allowing this virus to gain new abilities.”

H5N1 caught scientists by surprise when an outbreak in US dairy cattle emerged in March. New cases slowed in the summer, when dairy cows move around less, partly due to heat and partly because demand for milk drops during the summer, when school is out, Dr. Eric Deeble, deputy undersecretary for marketing and regulatory programs at the US Department of Agriculture, said in August. But that starts to change in the fall, when farmers move cows so they can graze on the remnants of fields that have recently been harvested.

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California is home toabout 1.7 milliondairy cows, aboutone-sixth of the national total, making it the nation’s largest dairy producing state.

How and when the virus made its way to California is still under investigation. But genetic testing at the USDA’s National Veterinary Services Laboratories shows that the virus that infecting the California herds is very closely related to the viruses that have infected more than 200 herds from 13 other states, Deeble said.

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“So we were dealing essentially with one variant from the very beginning of this outbreak,” Deeble told 【 - Free Discussion Group 】. “That information has been shared back with California, and so they’re continuing their epidemiological investigation with that knowledge in hand.”

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California is one of nine states — of 40 being monitored in their network — where H5 viruses have been found in wastewater.

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“So far, eight of these states have had outbreaks reported in cattle. The one state with an H5 detection that has not had an H5N1 cattle outbreak is Arkansas,” Wolfe wrote in an email.

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Flu viruses are a little bit like Tinkertoys; they keep their genes in easy-to-detach segments. When two flu viruses infect the same cell and get close together, they can simply swap these segments and give rise to viruses that can sometimes have dramatic new properties.

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Increasing vaccination rates among farmworkers is going to be a tall order, said Bethany Alcauter, director of research and public health programs at the National Center for Farmworker Health.

“What we’ve been hearing everywhere is the number of farms and the number of dairy employees who are getting [personal protective equipment] and getting information, accurate information, about bird flu is really in the minority,” Alcauter said.

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“Health and safety training in agriculture isn’t that common,” Alcauter said. Because many dairy operations are small, they aren’t usually covered by the government agency that oversees worker safety, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, or OSHA.

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Just like in any population, there will be some individuals who are hesitant about vaccination, but in general, she says, farmworkers tend to be accepting of vaccines because they often come from countries like Mexico and Guatemala that have large national vaccine campaigns.

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Kucharski argues that the most feasible and impactful stage for pandemic prevention is at stage two, when there are spillovers that cause localized clusters of infections. He says that the recent clusters of infections offarmworkers culling poultryin Colorado suggest that the H5N1 outbreak in the US is in that second stage, when prevention efforts can be less costly and more impactful.

“So really, it’s those situations where you’re starting to see evidence of ability to infect humans but not ability to sustain transmission very easily where there’s a prime potential for intervention,” Kucharski said.

Kucharski points to an outbreak of H7N9 in 2013 as a prime example of a situation where this worked. People were starting to catch this flu from live poultry markets in China, which shut down those markets and effectively stopped transmission of the virus.

“We haven’t had an H7N9 pandemic. We haven’t actually had many cases at all subsequently,” Kucharski said.

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“I think at the moment, the response doesn’t seem to be at the level it needs to be for this kind of threat,” Kucharski said.

“I think we saw, even in the early stages of Covid, that a lot of countries – lot of Europe, lot the US – basically wasn’t looking hard enough for Covid and then got caught out very badly when they realized that there was a lot more transmission than the raw data suggested,” Kucharski said.

“And so I think, particularly in this situation, getting a good grasp of what’s going on is kind of key, and I think we haven’t been getting that anywhere near the scale we need to.”

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In making the grants, Shah said, the agency was trying to learn from mistakes made during past public health emergencies.

“Previously … CDC developed tests for emerging pathogens and then shared those tests with others, and then after that, commercial labs would develop their own tests,” Shah said Thursday. “That process took time. Now with these new arrangements, commercial labs will be developing new tests for public health responses alongside CDC, not after CDC.”

CORRECTION: This story has been updated to note that the source of the funding for WastewaterScan is the Sergey Brin Family Foundation.

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