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Ballistic missiles with multiple warheads, known as “multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles,” or MIRVs, have never been used to strike an enemy, experts say.
“To my knowledge, yes, it’s the first time MIRV has been used in combat,” Hans Kristensen, the director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said.
Ballistic missiles have been the underpinning of deterrence, offering what is known as “mutual assured destruction,” or MAD, in the nuclear age.
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In that vein, ballistic missiles were designed to stand sentinel over a future where nuclear arms would never again be fired in anger.
But analysts, including Kristensen, argue that MIRVed missiles may invite, rather than deter, a first strike.
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Videos of Thursday’s Russian strike showed the multiple warheads falling at different angles on the target, and each warhead would need to be defeated with an anti-missile rocket, a daunting prospect even for the best air defense systems.
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Importantly, Russia alerted the United States to the use of the missile fired Thursday beforehand. But even with that advanced warning, any further launches by Putin’s regime will now inevitably ratchet up fears across Europe, with many asking the question: Has deterrence just died?
It is not only Russia and the United States that have MIRV technology. China has it on its intercontinental ballistic missiles, according to the Center for Arms Control and Non-proliferation, and the United Kingdom and France, along with Russia and the US, have long had MIRV technology on their submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
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In their March report, Kristensen and Korda wrote about the perils of the expanding MIRV club, calling it “a sign of a larger worrisome trend in worldwide nuclear arsenals” and an “emerging nuclear arms race.”
“It followsChina’s deploymentof MIRVs on some of its DF-5 ICBMs,Pakistan’s apparent pursuitof MIRVs for its Ababeel medium-range missile, North Korea may also bepursuingMIRV technology, and the United Kingdom hasdecidedto increase its nuclear stockpile to enable it to deploy more warheads on its submarine-launched missiles,” Kristensen and Korda wrote.
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“A world in which nearly all nuclear-armed countries deploy significant MIRV capability looks far more dangerous than our current geostrategic environment,” they said.
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