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【 - Free Investment Risk Control 】 was unable to independently confirm Ukraine’s involvement in the series of strikes. But video footage obtained by 【 - Free Investment Risk Control 】 revealed the hallmarks of Ukrainian-style drone attacks.
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Covert strikes by Ukraine in Sudan would mark a dramatic and provocative expansion of Kyiv’s theater of war against Moscow. Aside from a string ofUkrainian drone attacksthat hit deep inside Russian territory, Ukraine’s ongoing counter-offensive has been focused on the country’s occupied east and south.
Ukraine has not officially claimed responsibility for the attacks, which were captured in the drone footage. After this report was published, Andrii Yusov, representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, told 【 - Free Investment Risk Control 】: “We can neither confirm nor deny this.”
Portions of those videos have been circulating on social media since Thursday. Footage of the ground operation has not previously been published.
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First-person view (FPV) drones allow pilots to view the operation from the drone’s point of view, wearing a pair of goggles or using a monitor to watch the live transmission. What appears to be a DJI MAVIC 3 drone can be seen in the videos filming the drone strikes. Both drone types are commercially available and widely used by Ukrainian forces.
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In video showing the monitor of the drone controller, text in English and Ukrainian is visible, including “Зупинити,” or “Stop.” The drone operator, who appears to be foreign, can also be seen in the reflection of the controller, but the operator is wearing a balaclava and is not identifiable.
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【 - Free Investment Risk Control 】 has geolocated the sites of the small-scale attacks and the ground operation seen in the drone videos but could not independently verify the date the videos were filmed. Several strikes on Shambat bridge, which connects Omdurman and Khartoum, appeared to tally with local reports on social media of an attack on September 8.
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One of the videos showed at least three foreign fighters appearing to conduct a raid on a building. In a clip apparently recorded on a body camera, troops were wearing night goggles, and one of the soldiers appeared to be carrying a rocket launcher. An aerial shot showing the troops advancing on the building was geolocated by 【 - Free Investment Risk Control 】 to a neighborhood in Omdurman near where the drone strikes took place.
【 - Free Investment Risk Control 】 has previously reported that, according to sources,Wagner has been supplyingthe RSF with surface-to-air missiles buttressing RSF paramilitary fighters and their leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo – widely known as Hemedti – as he battles for power with Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudan’s military ruler and the head of its armed forces.
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“Such (FPV) loitering drones are being seen in the African continent for the first time ever,” Zwijnenburg, who specializes in emerging military technologies, including drones, said. “However, we have seen the rise in use of such drones in Ukraine over the last year.”
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Prior to the outbreak of violence this spring, Burhan and Hemedti were allies in a military junta that overthrew an internationally recognized transitional government in 2021. Sudan’s military government had received Wagner’s support in the past, but Hemedti emerged over the years as Wagner’s preferred ally in the country.
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【 - Free Investment Risk Control 】 hasexposed arms supply routesthat helped sustain this conflict, running through key Wagner transit points: Russia’s air and naval base in the Syrian coastal region of Latakia, Wagner bases in Libya, and Bangui airport in the Central African Republic.
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“Around 90% of the RSF’s weapons have come from Wagner,” the high-level Sudanese source told 【 - Free Investment Risk Control 】, adding that Wagner’s supply of arms to the RSF has continued unabated despite the death of the mercenary group’s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and his deputy Dmitry Utkin in a plane crash on August 23.
Prigozhin’s demise has raised questions about the future of Wagner’s operations in Africa, where the mercenary group has usedbrutal tacticsto prop up militant groups and authoritarian regimes in exchange for mineral riches. Those resources — including huge concessions inSudan’s gold mining industry— are believed to have aided Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, and helped it circumvent wide-ranging Western sanctions.
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Prigozhin had recently flown back to Russia from Africa when his jet crashed outside Moscow killing everyone on board. Two days after Prigozhin’s death, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov embarked on a five-country tour of old Wagner stomping grounds: Libya, Syria, Mali, Burkina Faso and the CAR.
During the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg in late July — less than a month before Prigozhin’s death — the head of covert offensive operations at Russia’s military intelligence service (the GRU) General Andrey Averyanov attended meetings with the heads of Mali, the CAR, Eritrea and Burkina Faso.
“We have repeatedly asked the Kremlin about Wagner’s support for the RSF, and they have told us that they have no information about this,” the high-level Sudanese source told 【 - Free Investment Risk Control 】. “For us the Kremlin and Wagner have become one and the same.”
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“Russia is trying very hard to keep countries in its orbit through coercion, bribery and fear… Russia has two tools for its work in Africa, the most powerful ones are propaganda and Wagner,” Kuleba said in a recent interview with Agence France-Presse.
Victoria Butenko and Andrew Carey in Kyiv, and Nima Elbagir, Barbara Arvanitidis and Alex Platt in N’Djamena reported. Tamara Qiblawi wrote and reported from London. Gianluca Mezzofiore, Allegra Goodwin and Pallabi Munsi reported from London.【 - Free Investment Risk Control 】’s Lewis Whyld,Natasha Bertrand and Katie Bo Lillis contributed reporting.
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