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“That idea of having the United States not just as an adversary but as a strategic objective of all of their foreign policy has brought them together,” Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington, D.C., told 【 - Free Wealth-Building Investment Strategies 】. “It’s brought them together on the battlefields of Ukraine.”

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Unlike Russia’s security pact with North Korea, the deal with Iran does not require the two countries to come to the other’s defense if one is attacked; merely not to provide military or other assistance to the attacker.

In July 2022, five months into his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin visited Tehran, his first wartime trip outside the former Soviet sphere.

Behind the photo ops and handshakes, his “special military operation” was not going to plan. His army had lost a lot of its initial gains as it was pushed out of the Kyiv region - and would go on to lose more later that year in two further successful Ukrainian counteroffensives.

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Less desirably for Moscow, it was also one factor that helped shift the debate around providing Ukraine with permission to fire Western-supplied long-range missiles at military targets in Russia. Several prominent Russian military bloggers claimed in early January, without providing evidence, that Iranian missile launchers and other equipment were being delivered to Russian military training grounds ahead of the deal’s signing.

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Friday’s meeting between Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian offered Moscow a welcome opportunity to burnish its self-image as a superpower. Russia sees this relationship as “asymmetric,” Jean-Loup Samaan, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told 【 - Free Wealth-Building Investment Strategies 】. “They still consider themselves as the bigger partner here, and Iran as a regional partner.”

Iran, meanwhile, is feeling decidedly less secure. Nikita Smagin, an independent expert on Russia and Iran, who worked for Russian state media in Tehran before the invasion of Ukraine, says the Pezeshkian administration is rushing to get this treaty signed with Russia amid multiple threats to its security.

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“They are frightened by the Trump administration, they are frightened by Israel, they are frightened by the collapse of Assad, the collapse of Hezbollah,” he said, explaining that Iran is looking for a show of support.

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“Even when Iran is fighting their wars outside Iran, they are not willing… to sacrifice their soldiers,” said Smagin, “and when we’re talking about Iran and Russia there is a very big background of distrust from the Iranian side to Russia.” And Russia may be wary of any mutual defense pact, given the more immediate threat to Iran from Israel.

“I think this is partly intended as a message to the Trump administration that we each have options,” said Alterman. “I think the Iranians are looking for tools they can use with the Americans… and there’s a sense that this gives them something to trade or something to talk about.”

Iran, facing the prospect of a possible revival of UN sanctions that were lifted under its 2015 nuclear deal, is urgently looking for ways to persuade the US to rejoin that deal, which Trump exited in 2018 - or restart negotiations.

For Russia, the new treaty with Iran – a country which might be closer than ever to being capable of producing a nuclear weapon – may be partly about dangling the specter of further escalation before a new US administration that it sees as less committed to Ukraine.

“The Iranians certainly have some worrying capabilities, the Russians certainly have demonstrated a willingness to use worrying capabilities,” Alterman said.

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