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“Thanksgiving (dinner) is the same price this year as last year overall, except eggs. The one little spike that we’re seeing,” said Stew Leonard Jr., CEO of Steward Leonard’s, a family-run northeast grocery chain with eight locations.

Egg prices at the grocery store were up 30.4% in October from the year prior, according to the consumer-price index.

“The holidays are always the highest retail sales season of the year because if you think about your holidays, your baking, your cooking, you’re entertaining, all of those require extra eggs,” said Emily Metz, president and CEO of the American Egg Board.

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Cases started to spike again last month, with avian flu killing 2.8 million egg-laying birds in the key egg-producing states of Oregon, Utah and Washington. That’s a projected loss of about 60 million eggs, according to a report by the US Department of Agriculture.

“Our egg prices really ridethe waves associated with high influenza,” said Bernt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation. “Eggs are one of those products where we see a lot of price volatility at the retail level. We see that go up and down quite a bit and there’s a lot of competition with it.”

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Grocers are then left to decide what price to sell eggs. It’s a delicate dance between how to make a typical profit without scaring away customers to a competitor.

“I can’t go over $4.99 (a dozen) on the eggs right now, even though our farmer may say he’s raising the price 10 cents,” said Leonard Jr. “I’ve found overall it’s a challenging year for the retail food industry. Expenses are going up faster than what the market will allow you to charge. And I think at least with us, our margins have gone down.”

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“It’s been out of control. Eggs used to be dirt cheap. They go through the roof, and then when they come back down, they’re still higher than that earlier point,” said Steve Schwartz, the director of sales and marketing for Morton Williams.

On October 2, Schwartz said he was paying $2.16 for a dozen eggs from his supplier. By October 28, it was $4.28 a dozen.

Commodity eggs have increased in price so much so that they can be nearly the same price as organic eggs.

“We have a dozen normal white eggs at five bucks. Now if you want to go to organic, it’s the same price,” said Leonard Jr.

Consumers tend to buy organic or pasteurized eggs around the holidays, believing it makes their food taste better, Leonard Jr. said. Now that they are nearly the same price as regular eggs, demand could put even more pressure on supply.

“Since everybody goes for the ‘better egg’ it puts a strain on that supply, because nothing’s been forecasted for something like that, and then the warehouses get shortages,” said Schwartz.

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“If eggs stay high, you get that ripple effect,” Schwartz added. So many products are made with eggs, ranging from pasta to mayonnaise, he said, that their own prices could be affected down the line.

“It’s all based on what’s going on. And that’s why mayo is so expensive now, from all the other times this has happened.”

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