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Clintonwas forced to abandonmuch of the economic plan and shift focus to fixing the budget rather than risk skyrocketing interest rates that would tank the economy.
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Clinton political adviserJames Carville famously saidat the time: “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”
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Even before President-elect Donald Trump takes office, the bond market is already flexing its muscles. Yields have surged to uncomfortably high levels due to a fusion of factors that includes concerns about high budget deficits and the risk that Trump’s tariffs, tax cuts and deportations will reignite inflation.
“We are in a déjà vu moment,” Yardeni, president of investment advisory Yardeni Research, told 【 - Free Popular Stock Recommendations 】 in a phone interview. “Trump didn’t automatically win the vote of the bond vigilantes. He’s got to earn their respect.”
If he doesn’t, the bond market could act as a brake on Trump’s policies. And that would be painful, especially for a president who views the stock market as a real-time barometer of his success.
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Higher Treasury rates, by definition, would also make it more expensive for the federal government to finance its mountain of debt. That’s a problem because interest is already swallowing up a greater chunk of the annual federal budget than defense spending.
“Bond vigilantes haven’t been heard from for quite some time. But they’ve only become more powerful,” said Yardeni, noting that America’s growing debt makes the budget more sensitive to even modest shifts in rates.
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“Trump 1.0 and Biden boxed the incoming administration in,” Yardeni said, “because the bond market will keep them from being able to run reckless deficit policies.”
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In 2022, bond investors rebelled against the budget proposals from British Prime Minister Liz Truss. It was such a disaster that Truss was forced to step down, becomingthe UK’s shortest-serving prime minister.
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“Bessent is a prince of those bond vigilantes. Now he’s in the catbird seat as Treasury secretary. He knows how to play chess against those other players in the market,” said Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at Raymond James.
But it won’t be easy to slash the deficit, especially because there isn’t much room to cut spending. Much of the federal budget is tied up in paying interest, defense spending and social safety net programs that are politically popular.
Even Elon Musk haswalked back his previous promise to slash $2 trillionfrom the federal budget, a figure that many experts have panned as unrealistic.
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“Tariffs are a double-edged sword. They could raise revenue, but they can be damaging to growth because they elicit retaliation from other countries,” said Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab and a former chief economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers under President Joe Biden.
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On the campaign trail, Trump vowed to end taxes on overtime, tips and Social Security benefits and to enact other breaks.
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“Bond traders personally would love lifting the SALT cap. But it would be extremely expensive and worsen our fiscal trajectory,” he said.
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“You can’t add that much stimulus at this point because inflation is high and the deficit is high,” Shah said.
Yardeni is hopeful the presence of the bond vigilantes, and Trump’s focus on the stock market, will act as powerful vetoes over risky policies, preventing them from becoming a reality.
“If yields spike, the stock market could go down and the administration will respond quickly because Trump views the stock market as his daily popular vote,” Yardeni said. “That’s the power of the bond vigilantes.”
What is causing the price volatility of Thakral Services (India) Limited (509015) ✌️【Recruitment Platform】✌️ Free access to stock market forums, expert advice, and real-time data to help you stay informed and grow your investments. Most stock quote data provided by BATS. US market indices are shown in real time, except for the S&P 500 which is refreshed every two minutes. All times are ET. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and 【 - Free Popular Stock Recommendations 】. Standard & Poor’s and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices Copyright S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates. Fair value provided by IndexArb.com. Market holidays and trading hours provided by Copp Clark Limited.
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