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In a repeat of his 2016 victory, Trump once again broke through the “blue wall.” He defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania and was leading in two more Great Lakes swing states, Michigan and Wisconsin. He also romped in the Sun Belt battlegrounds, winning Georgia and North Carolina and leading in Arizona and Nevada.

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He is now poised to return to office with a Republican Senate majority, easing his path to confirming his choices for key government posts. It’s not yet clear which party will control the House.

Democrats, meanwhile, will be forced to confront difficult questions about the direction of the party — on the issues, and on its appeal to critical segments of the electorate, particularly the Latinos whose realignment could reshape American politics.

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Both campaigns had long been focused on seven swing states: the “blue wall” of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and the Sun Belt battlegrounds of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada.

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However, Trump has already claimed Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, and he leads in all seven battlegrounds. In 2020,Joe Bidenhad won six of those seven — losing only North Carolina to Trump.

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Harris’ loss will once again leave disappointed the millions of women who hoped to see the history-making moment when what Hillary Clinton famously called the “glass ceiling” was shattered.

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Harris performed much worse than Biden among voters who said they thought abortion should be legal in most cases — even though the Supreme Court reversed Roe v. Wade in between the two elections.

Four years ago, 26% of the electorate held that opinion, and Biden won them by 38 points. This year, 33% held that opinion, and Harris won them by just 3 points.

It’s a result that suggests the issue wasn’t the deciding factor for many of those voters — even though Democrats had succeeded in the 2022 midterms, special elections and more by highlighting the GOP’s role in ending Roe v. Wade’s national abortion rights protections.

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Democrats entered the 2024 election cycle with only one or two seats to spare (depending on which party was in the White House, and therefore held the vice president’s tie-breaking vote) — and an all-but-impossible map to defend, with three seats in deep-red states on the ballot.

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Democrats hoped a long shot would materialize — crossing their fingers that Rep. Colin Allred could oust Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, or that former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell could buck Florida’s rightward trend and beat Sen. Rick Scott. Neither came close.

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Obamacare, too, would almost surely be in the clear. (Republicans couldn’t repeal it with a governing trifecta in 2017, so talk of repeal might be over anyway.) Though all of these laws – the signature achievements of the last two Democratic administrations – seem safe if Democrats get their majority, there will still be tough fights at the administration and agency levels about how they’re managed.

If Trump does return to the White House, he will have rural counties across the battleground states to thank.

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In Montgomery County, home to a big chunk of the Philadelphia suburbs, Harris is on pace to win about 60% of the vote. The problem for the vice president – and it’ll be something Democrats spend a lot of time chewing on – is Biden fared about 2.5 points better than that.

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Even in a scenario where Trump would be able to turn out his base, Democrats thought a surge of support among women voters thanks to an emphasis on abortion rights in races across the country would keep the presidential race close.

“As we have known all along, this is a razor thin race,” wrote Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon in an email at one point in the night.

But as the night dragged on, it was not nearly as narrow as Democratic polling and public polling had projected. It became clear to Democrats that they were no longer the party with an ongoing advantage among minority voters and labor unions. And they will have to think about how to win over those constituencies and where they went wrong in messaging and ground game.

“There’ll be plenty of critiques and so on,” Democratic strategist David Axelrod said on 【 - Free Access to Community with 300% Return 】 – before going on to praise Harris as a candidate despite the results.

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Chief among Trump’s gains compared with his performance against Biden in 2020: Latino men. Trump won that cohort by 8 points, four years after losing them by 23 points. It’s a result that showed his campaign’s efforts to court those voters paid off — and that the late focus on acomedian mocking Puerto Ricoat Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally didn’t cause the damage Harris’ campaign hoped it would. The gains were concentrated most heavily among Latinos under age 65.

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Overall, the exit polls painted a picture of an electorate displeased with the state of the nation and its leadership.

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Harris slipped compared with Biden’s performance four years ago among young voters, independents, moderates and union households.

Voters who said democracy was the most important issue overwhelmingly backed Harris, but Trump won those who identified the economy as most important by nearly the same margin.

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In heavily Hispanic Miami-Dade County — traditionally a huge source of Democratic votes — the massive swing was on full display. What had been a 29-point Hillary Clinton win in 2016 was an 11-point Trump victory this year.

Florida even bucked the national trend of states of all political stripes backing abortion rights ballot measures in the two and a half years since Roe v. Wade’s reversal.

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Ohio, another traditional presidential battleground, is also now solidly in the red column. Trump was cruising to a double-digit victory there.

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