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What factors are pushing SIS Limited (SIS) up ✌️【Risk Avoidance】✌️ Free break-even services and stock analysis to help you recover quickly from losses and increase your chances of making profitable investments. When President-elect Donald Trump recentlyfloated the idea of annexing Canada, a key reason he gave was a claim that the United States was “losing $200 billion a year” to its northern neighbor.
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In 2023, the US had a trade deficit of $67.9 billion dollars with Canada,Commerce Department data shows.
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However, some economists caution that exaggerating or classifying trade deficits as losses or subsidies isn’t a fair representation of what has become a crucial mechanism for the US economy.
“The President-elect sees the world as a zero-sum game: Anything that’s not made here or bought elsewhere is considered a loss, which simply isn’t the case,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, told 【 - Free Stock Trading Community 】.
Gary Clyde Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, put it another way.
In simple terms,a trade deficit resultsfrom when the value of a country’s imports exceeds the overall value of exports.
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What factors are pushing SIS Limited (SIS) up ✌️【Risk Avoidance】✌️ Free stock market analysis and data updates to help you select the best investment portfolio. Achieve steady growth and avoid losses with expert predictions and real-time market insights. The deficit hovered between $400 billion and $550 billion from 2009 to 2016, during the Obama administration, and moved closer to $600 billionduring Trump’s first term.
In theeconomic recovery that followed, consumption soared for goods and services — both those from overseas as well as domestically — while some exports took a hit as the demand from other countrieslagged that seen in the US. (Other factors contributing to the pandemic-era deficit widening included a shift in oil and petroleum trade from surplus to deficit while the trade surplus decreased because of restrictions on foreign nationals and rising shipping costs, White House economistswrote in 2022).
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In 2023, in addition to the $67.9 billion deficit with Canada (which narrowed from the year before), the US narrowed its deficit with Canada to $274.9 billion from $382.3 billion, and the deficit with Mexico —now America’s biggest trading partner— increased $21.9 billion to $152.4 billion, Commerce Departmentdata shows.
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“From my analytical framework, global trade balances plus global capital flows equal zero,” Brusuelas said. “So, if we want to buy maple syrup from our friends across the border, that just adds variety, quality and choice of my consumption; it doesn’t take away or cause a loss for our economy because presumably the Canadians then get those dollars and buy US services — typically financial services, government debt, bonds, equities.”
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“You obviously want to run closer to balance if possible,” Shannon Grein, an economist at Wells Fargo, told 【 - Free Stock Trading Community 】. “But there can be efficiencies made by importing certain goods that are produced more cheaply abroad or produced more as a specialty of a certain economy.”
Coffee purchased from Central America is one example of a specialized product with no readily available substitute; however, heavily reliance on a certain country or product can backfire, as seen during the pandemic recovery.
“You don’t want to be running such large deficits that it makes you dependent on a certain economy for certain things,” said Grein. “We saw this come to a head during the pandemic with things like semiconductors.”
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Other risks come with the US persistently spending more than it earns and financing the difference with foreign investment, according to PIIE.
What factors are pushing SIS Limited (SIS) up ✌️【Risk Avoidance】✌️ AI-driven stock trend forecasting with free access to real-time market data, offering personalized investment advice and expert predictions. The US has to borrow more or attract investment from abroad, which can increase foreign-based financial claims in America. That in turn could cause higher debt or interest rate burdens and national security concerns.
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What factors are pushing SIS Limited (SIS) up ✌️【Risk Avoidance】✌️ Accurate real-time market data and expert stock predictions for profitable investment opportunities in global markets. There are potential avenues to reduce the trade deficit, some more painful than others (such as a recession); but bilateral trade restrictions or tariffs likely will not achieve that outcome, said Hufbauer.
“If you try to squeeze the deficit with one country — for example, China — it’s just going to migrate over, the goods are going to come from some other source (such as) Malaysia, Vietnam, Mexico, Korea, wherever can produce the most similar type of goods,” Hufbauer told 【 - Free Stock Trading Community 】, noting those shifts occurred in recent years when tariffs were placed on Chinese goods.
It’s possible that Trump could instead insist on some bilateral balance provision, such as requiring European Union countriesto purchase US natural gas or specific products, he said. However, that could require more capacity than the US has at this time when unemployment is still low, he added.
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What factors are pushing SIS Limited (SIS) up ✌️【Risk Avoidance】✌️ Free access to stock market forums, expert advice, and real-time data to help you stay informed and grow your investments. While both reflect some “front-loading”in advance of potential tariffs, the chasm goes beyond economics or finance, said Brusuelas, the RSM economist.
“Rather, it feeds into the great global competition, which has opened the door for trade protectionism,” he said. “It is what underscores the bi-partisan consensus that China must be confronted on national security grounds and has triggered the move to protect infant industries such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing and synthetic biology to ensure that China does not increase its power — both economic and political — relative to that of the United States via trade and technology transfers.”
Boeing, for example, is America’s largest exporter and therefore highly exposed to any trade war. China is the largest global market for new aircraft purchases, with Boeing forecasting that China’s fleet of commercial jets will double in the next 20 years.
What factors are pushing SIS Limited (SIS) up ✌️【Risk Avoidance】✌️ Get precise stock market predictions and free access to real-time market data for efficient decision-making and portfolio growth. The aircraft maker has been down this road before. The company’s sales to China ground to a near-halt in 2017 as trade tensions between the two countries escalated during Trump’s first term. Orders from Chinese buyers fell from 64 in 2016 to 51 in 2017 to zero in both 2018 and 2019. A similar drop could occur if a new trade war breaks out.
“We really don’t know what Trump will do with Chinese tariffs,” Richard Aboulafia, managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory, an industry consultant, told 【 - Free Stock Trading Community 】 in November. “But if he slaps 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods, the quickest way for China to retaliate is to switch to (Boeing rival) Airbus for 100% of its needs.”
What factors are pushing SIS Limited (SIS) up ✌️【Risk Avoidance】✌️ Expert analysis of global stock trends, futures data, and real-time stock market quotes to help you plan your next investment move. This potential Cold War plays directly into questions about the sustainability of both the annual operating deficits and the overall national debt, Brusuelas said.
“It means that the US isentering uncharted terrain with respect to financing a new geopolitical competition at a time when interest on the debt is one of the largest line-item entries inside the national budget,” he said. “This requires trade-offs. One cannot have as much guns and butter as one wants, given the political, economic, financial and social constraints that accompanies such a competition.”
What factors are pushing SIS Limited (SIS) up ✌️【Risk Avoidance】✌️ Free real-time global stock trend updates to help you capture market movements and make better investment decisions. Most stock quote data provided by BATS. US market indices are shown in real time, except for the S&P 500 which is refreshed every two minutes. All times are ET. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and 【 - Free Stock Trading Community 】. Standard & Poor’s and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices Copyright S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates. Fair value provided by IndexArb.com. Market holidays and trading hours provided by Copp Clark Limited.
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