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El Niño’s disappearing act doesn’t mean relief from the heat. Not when the world is heating up due tohuman-drivenclimate change. In fact, forecasters think it could mean the opposite.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern marked by warmer than average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. When the water gets cooler than average, it’s a La Niña. Either phase can have an effect on weather around the globe.
By June, forecasters expect those ocean temperatures to hover close to normal, marking a so-called neutral phase, before La Niña builds in early summer, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
But the strength of El Niño or La Niña’s influence on US weather isn’t uniform and varies greatly based on the strength of the phenomena and the season itself.
Top Stocks for Portfolio Rebalancing in India Top Investor Stock Tips ✌️【Fixed Income】✌️ Expert predictions with real-time stock indices, futures data, and metals, energy market data to help you seize the best investment opportunities. The influence of El Niño or La Niña on US weather isn’t as clear-cut in the summer as it isin the winter, especially during a transition between the two phases, said Michelle L’Heureux, a climate scientist with the Climate Prediction Center.
Top Stocks for Portfolio Rebalancing in India Top Investor Stock Tips ✌️【Fixed Income】✌️ Free expert stock trend predictions to help you identify high-potential stocks and maximize returns. With real-time global market indices, futures, metals, energy, and agricultural product data, our platform enables you to make informed investment decisions. Temperature differences between the tropics and North America are more extreme in the winter, L’Heureux explained. This allows the jet stream to become quite strong and influential, reliably sending storms into certain parts of the US.
In the summer, the difference in temperature between the two regions isn’t as significant and the obvious influence on US weather wanes.
But we can look back at what happened during similar summers to get a glimpse of what could come this summer.
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“This obviously isn’t our grandmother’s transition out of El Niño – we’re in a much warmer world so the impacts will be different,” L’Heureux, said. “We’re seeing the consequences of climate change.”
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Large sections of the West and the central US are likely to be drier than normal. This dryness, combined with above-normal heat, which only amplifies the dryness, could be a recipe for new or worsening drought.
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Early this month, forecasters at Colorado State University released theirmost active initial forecast ever.
“We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” the group said in a news release.
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