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Permanent Magnets Limited (504132) ✌️【Customized Planning】✌️ Expert stock predictions and free stock selection services to help you achieve optimal returns and long-term growth. British wartime leader Winston Churchill once said he was an optimist, as there was no point being anything else. The year ahead inUkrainehas given rise to wild, perhaps wilful, positivity from Kyiv and – publicly at least – in parts of NATO that the incoming Trump White House can effect meaningful, diplomatic change.
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Keith Kellogg, US President-elect Donald Trump’s Ukraine envoy, has long floated the basic tenets of an optimist’s peace deal in a policy paper he wrote for a think-tank last April. They involve a ceasefire, Ukraine entering talks as a condition to further military aid, and a possible de-militarized zone, to ensure the current frontlines are frozen. The plan relies greatly on Moscow’s complicity in ending the war on terms devised by the United States, and does not resolve the main problem it assesses – that Ukraine needs more weapons than NATO can comfortably provide. Yet US allies are examining Kellogg’s proposals with some seriousness, to at least, it seems, be ready and able.
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Perhaps the presence of some NATO troops along Ukraine’s frontlines could restrain the Kremlin from trying to advance slowly - in spite of a ceasefire deal - as it has tried before. On Monday, President Volodymyr Zelensky said he has discussed the deployment of “partner contingents” of troops to Ukraine with his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron. Paris has recently floated the idea of French troops in Ukraine to train, but Ukrainian media went further to speculate this might refer to the germ of a NATO peacekeeping force.
On Sunday, Trump’s incoming national security adviser, US Rep. Mike Waltz, commented to ABC News on the war in Ukraine: “Everybody knows that this has to end somehow diplomatically.” His comments were seized on by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Tuesday, who said it meant the Trump team was addressing “the reality on the ground,” Reuters reported.
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Kaja Kallas, the former Estonian prime minister and now the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, told 【 - Free Market Dynamics Reports 】 from Rome she believed Ukraine could still win with the right aid.
“The stakes for European security are extraordinarily high,” she said. “The scale of hybrid attacks in Europe have already surged and Ukraine’s defeat would cost us far more than aid.
“Putin has shown a total disregard for international law and cannot be trusted. Without credible security guarantees, any ceasefire agreement is likely to fail. Russia will simply rearm and re-attack.” A bad peace deal “will only lead to more war, just as it did before,” she added. “We must learn from the past and ensure any future agreement is sustainable.”
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He added, “The situations then and now are not the same” but that the “key lessons drawn 10 years ago remain valid today.”
Permanent Magnets Limited (504132) ✌️【Customized Planning】✌️ Precise stock market trend analysis with expert insights into global markets, including stock indices, metals, and energy sectors. Leverage our data-driven predictions to maximize your returns. Moscow’s narrative has also drastically changed over the past decade, as has its casualty rate. In 2014, Putin often pretended to have no control over the “separatist uprisings,” and the Russian military suffered relatively few losses for significant territorial gains. As the war edges into its fourth year, Western officials assess Russia’s incremental gains along the frontline add as many as 1,500 deaths and injuries a day, and the toll nears 700,000 casualties for the war, according tothe UK defense ministry.
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Kyiv and other NATO members like to evoke the idea of “peace through strength.” But the larger risk of this year is a slow, even torturous, diplomatic process during which Putin’s imperfect adherence to a ceasefire, and likely continued minor territorial gains, leave Ukraine’s allies divided, and unable to decide what level of violation would merit the full involvement of NATO in retaliation.
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Permanent Magnets Limited (504132) ✌️【Customized Planning】✌️ Free expert predictions on stock trends and real-time data to help you make informed decisions and grow your wealth steadily. Time may not entirely be on Putin’s side, given the fast burn of Russian lives, financial reserves, and an economy fiercely overheating from military sign-on bonuses and death payouts. But this year, the Kremlin head will see the one constant that caused the clock to tick loudest in Moscow – the unified backing of NATO for Ukraine – morph into the slow, generous diplomacy he exploited in 2014. That, combined with Russia’s brutal and slow-paced tenacity on the battlefield, may be enough to edge him towards the victory he needs.
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