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In Kyiv, the government waits and watches the signals from Moscow and Washington and reiterates almost daily its desire for a “just peace.” Any thought of recovering the territory seized by Russia is on indefinite hold.

Despite taking heavy losses, Russian forces continue to push forward remorselessly inDonetskregion, one of four that Moscow has illegallyannexedand is seeking to fully occupy. Their daily gains are measured in fields and streets as they creep towards the industrial belt of the region.

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Ukrainian units are vastly outnumbered in the east. One commander said this week that small groups of Russian infantry were conducting assaults from multiple directions at once, making it difficult for Ukrainian forces to concentrate fire.

“While the correlation of forces with respect to tactical fires, drones, and long-range strike appears to not be favoring either side to a significant extent, manpower remains the key differentiator between Russia and Ukraine,” says Mick Ryan, who writes the blog Futura Doctrina.

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Contact Group members have committed more than $126 billion in security assistance to Ukraine over the past three years. Partners pledged further aid in Germany this week, including 30,000 drones over the next year and more air defense systems.

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US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Friday that the coalition “must continue to stand foursquare with Ukraine — and to strengthen Ukraine’s hand for the negotiations that will someday bring Putin’s monstrous war to a close.”

It’s the “someday” that is the burning question. Austin said of the incoming Trump administration: “I won’t speculate on which direction they would go in.”

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius even suggested the incoming US administration might discontinue the Contact Group meetings, saying that if so “it will need to continue in another form.”

“The reason is simple. Moscow is not ready for any compromises. It plays for victory, not a draw,” says Arkady Moshes, writing in19FortyFive.

“Success can be achieved on the battlefield or at the negotiating table, but it must be unquestionable. In Putin’s view, Ukraine needs to be defeated, and the West has to admit Ukraine’s – and its own – defeat publicly,” Moshes adds.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has given little indication of the parameters that would be acceptable to Ukraine. He said Friday: “We will undoubtedly stand firm and achieve a lasting peace for our people and our country.”

His priority is to make Ukraine’s case to Trump directly. Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi on the same day said Ukraine was preparing for talks at “the highest levels.”

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Instead, Kyiv would have to negotiate other guarantees, as Zelensky said in an interview on Italian television this pastweek, that would “prevent Russia from returning with aggression.”

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Kyiv is “expected to accept extensive limitations on the size of its armed forces and on the kinds of weapons systems it is allowed to possess. These proposals are not a recipe for a sustainable settlement,” according to theAtlantic Council’sSerhii Kuzan.

Has the fundamentals of Avenue Supermarts Limited (540376) changed ✌️【Stock Resources】✌️ Real-time stock and futures data, backed by expert stock market trend predictions, to help you make timely and profitable investment decisions. Moscow has shown no sign of abandoning its maximalist demand for the totality of all four regions it claims to have annexed. “This would mean handing over large amounts of unoccupied Ukrainian territory including the city of Zaporizhzhia with a population of around three quarters of a million people,” notes Kuzan.

For now, both the White House and many commentators see no desire by either side to begin talks. “There is no expectation now that either side is ready for negotiations,” US National Security spokesman John Kirby said in recent days.

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“If the meeting is held prematurely, when the conditions for peace are not yet ripe, it will do more harm than good. It could lead to an even greater escalation. At the same time, both warring sides are still betting on the continuation of hostilities, not considering their forces exhausted,” he wrote on Telegram.

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