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Everyone knew the president-elect and his new super-disrupter buddy were going to cause havoc in Washington. But no one thought they’d manage it even before the 47th president is sworn in.
Barring a pre-Christmas legislative miracle, the US government will plunge into a partial shutdown at midnight Friday after Musk tanked a year-end spending deal and the Trump doubled down with a demand for new debt spending authority that he never had a chance of getting through Congress.
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House Speaker Mike Johnson’s desperate Plan B on Thursday only succeeded in coming up with a bill that sparked a revolt on the House floor against Trump by 38 Republicans and almost all Democrats.
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It was a Wednesday social media storm by Musk, who will co-chair an ad-hoc Department of Government Efficiency next year, and the return of Trump’s congressional wrecking ball that turned everything on its head.
“Truly, I don’t know what’s going on,” Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins said at one point on Thursday as Johnson frantically struggled — and failed — to enact his Plan B.
Johnson had worked for weeks to try to keep the government open. That is now a strategy that threatens his already wobbling speakership since plenty of MAGA Republicans would be happy to see it close, even though that could inconvenience and economically harm many of their working-class voters.
By Thursday evening, his authority was in tatters as furious Republicans turned on one another on the House floor. Democrats suddenly emerged from their post-election funk to warn that the real new power in the land was not Trump but the world’s richest man: “President Musk.”
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First, the recalcitrance of the House GOP shows that although Trump will be an unusually powerful president when he takes office for the second time, he won’t be omnipotent
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For MAGA supporters, the idea that Trump and Musk’s end of year train wreck is a failure will be a colossal case of missing the point. After all, the power pair’s appeal lies in their promise to eviscerate Washington.
But despite the anti-government fervor of his base, Trump will need to provide a measure of governance next year if he is to enact his ambitious plans on immigration and taxes. That’s going to be a challenge if Musk is constantly on the brink of tearing everything down.
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Johnson’s attempt to defuse the crisis with a new bill with a measure that included $100 billion in disaster relief and help for farmers achieved the unique feat of turning both Democrats and Republicans against it.
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House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries argued that Trump’s demand was an attempt to create room for massive tax cuts that would favor corporations and the wealthiest Americans in the new year that would balloon the deficit. “This bill is designed to set up the GOP tax scam 2.0,” the New York Democrat said.
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Johnson’s initial aim was to keep the government open until next year, with a stop gap spending plan — which needed Democratic votes and priorities to pass — to clear the decks for Trump and the new Republican Congress in January.
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“The best idea would have been for us to work together to take as much off of Trump’s plate as possible in the first 100 days and the way you do that is you eat a sh*t sandwich,” Rep. Dan Crenshaw, a Texas Republican, said. “And if he would back us up instead of letting his people destroy us online, we would eat the sh*t sandwich for him.”
But the hubris of the president-elect, who’s acting as though he is already the new commander-in-chief, and the involvement of the mercurial Musk led Trump into a treacherous spot.
In some ways, the showdown was set off by the belief among some Republicans that a clear Trump election victory equipped them with unassailable authority to act exactly as they please. Trump’s supporters believe that they have a mandate for slashing reductions in government and huge budget cuts, so it’s hardly surprising they’d balk at a multi-billion dollar spending spree.
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It’s just possible to imagine a solution that could see the debt ceiling provision removed from the bill, leaving more than $100 billion in disaster aid, plus aid for farmers, that might be able to squeeze through with Democratic House votes.
But that would require Trump to back down on his debt ceiling demand — meaning he’d suffer a huge and public legislative defeat even before becoming president again. And if Johnson tried to move the bill in such a manner, with Democratic votes, he might deal the final blow to his own speakership.
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But disruption quickly spreads throughout the country — airport security can be slowed, for example, and national parks get closed down. The inevitable stories of military personnel working without pay would heap pressure on the GOP and create exactly the wrong public perception at the start of a new presidency.
In the event of a shutdown, the best scenario for the GOP in the new Congress would be to fold a new funding bill into a budget that would enact large spending cuts demanded by grassroots Republicans and put it on Trump’s desk once he is sworn in as president.
But that assumes a level of Republican unity that has never been obvious in the Trump era. And right now, it looks like the House might struggle to fulfill its most basic initial duty — electing a new speaker.
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