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Every hurricane in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was made stronger than it otherwise would have been without human-caused climate change, according to analysis from nonprofit climate research group Climate Central. Wind speeds of the 11 hurricanes were increased by 9 to 28 mph by water that was up to 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer because of climate change.
“Every hurricane in 2024 was stronger than it would have been 100 years ago,” said Daniel Gilford, climate scientist at Climate Central and lead author of the report. “Through record-breaking ocean warming, human carbon pollution is worsening hurricane catastrophes in our communities.”
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Climate Central researchers also found that human-caused climate change made exceptionally warm ocean temperatures that fueled Milton’s explosion 400 to 800 times more likely. They also found that Milton wouldn’t have reached Category 5.
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Other scientists not involved in the study agreed with the researchers’ overall finding that that human-caused global warming was intensifying storms, but urged caution around the specific increase in wind speeds, particularly with projecting the influence of global warming on future storms.
“I see this paper as a good way to estimate how multiple anthropogenic factors have increased hurricane intensities in the Atlantic, but I do not think that these estimates can be projected into the future,” said Jim Kossin, a hurricane expert and retired NOAA climate scientist.
Kossin said he’s not confident that future increases in climate change-fueled ocean warming will directly lead to hurricanes becoming stronger at the same rate as they have in the past. This is because ocean temperatures are influenced by various factors other than carbon pollution, and the impact of temperature changes on hurricanes could differ in the future.
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