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“Our region has been screaming and crying out, ‘Hey, we’re here. We’re trying to change. We’re trying to grow. Look at all the thing we’re doing,’” he says. “And yet nobody truly paid attention until we became a battleground county.”

Just as they have zeroed in on a Pennsylvania county about 350 miles away, where we sat at Phil Kerner’s dining room table around fresh pepperoni balls – an Erie County delicacy, his wife informs us – a few days later.

“You’d drive down that industrial corridor on 12th Street, just full shops. Just full shops. Amazing,” Kerner recounted, inviting the obvious follow-up.

Donald Trumpnarrowly captured each on his way to collapsing the Democrats’ vaunted “blue wall” in 2016.

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It’s the throughline between the story as told by two families – the Colemans and the Kerners – with generational ties to these communities now fully ensconced in the political Klieg lights.

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“Many of the matriarchs and patriarchs of our families who are now retired, they’re holding on to their properties. They’re hoping that they have something that they can pass down to the generations, to the next generation,” Coleman says.

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“Eighty to ninety percent of the adults in the church were employed full time with GM,” Coleman’s father, a bishop in the Church of God in Christ, says of the congregation he inherited from his own dad.

“Right now, in our congregation, I have one person full-time employed by the auto industry,” Hurley Coleman Jr. says.

In recent years, other industries have started to move in to provide opportunities that had seemed all too fleeting as the broad-based manufacturing tied to major automakers atrophied in the area.

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“The story that I’d like for us to tell is that we’re resilient and that we do bounce back and that we do have people in this region that are thinking towards the future and that we have, hopefully, a new generation of people that will love this region as well, just like we do,” the younger Coleman says.

Coleman was sitting at his kitchen table as he toggled between sparks of optimism – for his community and his family – and the weight of what he’s experienced over the past several years.

“Sometimes when they come in there and we are their last hope,” Coleman says. “The lights are shut off. They have no food in the cabinets. Senior citizens have been sitting at home, nobody to call, nobody to help them out.”

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“There are those days when we have so many people that need help. So many problems, so many issues, so many emergencies and calamities that have happened,” Coleman says.

Back in Erie, as Phil Kerner flips through the binder on his desk filled with sketches, time cards and family history, it’s apparent there isn’t much he hasn’t saved over the years.

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“My grandfather did this. My father did this. My uncles did it. My brothers did it. I did it. My kids aren’t doing it,” Kerner says. “That tells you everything, right?”

Kerner still loves his tool and die craft and now works for a local family-owned manufacturer of component parts when he’s not in the workshop he built in his basement.

His work can be painstakingly intricate, from the granular details necessary in the sketch of a design to the art and science required to build a plastic injection mold.

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But Kerner can pinpoint the exact moment he saw his industry take a turn as part of a decadelong shift to cheaper and faster production overseas.

“I realized that my best customer for ten years was - I wouldn’t use the word undermining me - but had totally abandoned a lot of us in Erie that were doing work for them,” Kerner recalled.

Kerner remains deeply passionate about his profession, so much so that as he saw interest waning in what he viewed as a top-tier trade, he took matters into his own hands.

He launched a YouTube channel titled, naturally, “The Tool and Die Guy.” He has more than 25,000 subscribers.

“I’m just what they’re looking for - irreverent enough, you know?” Kerner said with a chuckle. “I’m the toolmaker they always wish they had working next to them.”

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Instead, it was an effort born of that passion for his trade – and his deep concern that the appreciation for the skill and craftsmanship that goes with it has diminished in the same way that manufacturing has in places like Erie across the country.

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“It’s sad to see it as somebody who has experienced the zenith of manufacturing from the 50s up until the 90s,” Kerner says.

Kerner cops to being “a little bit of a political junkie,” and he pays close attention to the broader economic news in the country.

He knows the broader macroeconomic numbers point to an economy that has exceeded expectations and forecasts for several years running. But his view of the economy is tied to what he’s seeing in his household.

“It’s not like my wages are going up,” Kerner says. “Not a complaint, but my wages aren’t going up. And I get it - I see that touted a lot. Wages going up. Wages going up. I talk to my friends, ‘Your wages going up?’ No. I don’t know whose wages are going up.”

He describes his decision for who to vote for in similar terms – comparing it to a business owner forced to choose between making payroll or paying suppliers.

“If you don’t figure this out, you lose your home. We’re going to foreclose on you. Who are you going to call?” Kerner asks. “Probably going to call Trump.”

“I think the general consensus in the business community is Trump’s kind of one of us or one of them, you know, because he’s at least on it,” Kerner says. “You ain’t like the way he did it, but that’s his background.”

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It is, in many ways, the point of his YouTube videos, which have taken on a deeper meaning for him over time.

“As long as there’s an internet, people will know that there was a Kerner family in Erie, Pennsylvania. That the tool and die trade was great. That Phil Kerner did it and taught us how to do the best he could,” he says.

For all of the optimism he conveys about Saginaw’s future, the reality of the policy contrasts between the two candidates is very real in his line of work.

He sees Trump’s fiscal proposals as directly targeting the federal dollars that help his nonprofit operate.

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“They have no idea the everyday, you know, traumas of a person who’s living in poverty,” Coleman says. “People with money could face hardship that causes them to lose their home or forces them to struggle with the high cost of gas.”

“But that doesn’t parallel the person who was living in poverty,” Coleman says. “It’s just night and day.”

Coleman supported Biden’s reelection – he and his son, HJ, even spent time with the incumbent when he traveled to Saginaw while still a candidate.

He’s now supporting Harris and saw the Democratic National Convention as a positive step in outlining what she brings to the table.

“Many Black men in our area are still yet undecided,” Coleman says. He hears often about the border and whether migrants are taking federal aid that could help people in his community.

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“There are people who think that the stimulus checks that came out during the pandemic and things of that nature are something that’s going to happen again,” Coleman’s father says.

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“Now the conversation is not how bad Biden was or how good Trump was, but what possibly could happen with a Harris presidency,” the bishop says. “I think there’s more opportunistic hope that’s been created in the last few weeks.”

Driving down Williams Street with the younger Coleman, just before the Saginaw River, it’s impossible to miss the string of abandoned silos that jut into the skyline.

Once an unavoidable blot hanging over the city’s business and arts districts, they were transformed a few years ago into a 70,000-square-foot canvas for contract street artists.

For Coleman, the eruption of bright colors and unwieldy shapes represents more than just a beautification project.

“What was old, what was outdated is about its experience of having transformation and rebirth,” he says, staring at the mural. “And people are going to benefit off of others’ creativity and desire to see change. And I think that’s what those silos represent. And it’s the future for this region.”

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