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Debris striking the space station could have spelled disaster. An impact might have depressurized segments of the station and left the astronauts scrambling to return home.
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Foryears, space traffic experts have raised alarm bells about the increasing congestion. Earlier collisions, explosions and weapons tests have resulted in tens of thousands of pieces of debris that experts are tracking and possibly millions more that cannot be seen with current technology.
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“The number of objects in space that we have launched in the last four years has increased exponentially,” said Dr. Vishnu Reddy, a professor of planetary sciences at the University of Arizona in Tucson. “So we are heading towards the situation that we are always dreading.”
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But the phrase broadly describes a scenario in which debris in space sets off a chain reaction: One explosion sends out a plume of fragments that in turn smash into other spaceborne objects, creating more detritus. The cascading effect may continue until Earth’s orbit is so clogged with junk that satellites become inoperable and space exploration must come to a grinding halt.
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But there is widespread consensus about one thing: Traffic in space is a serious problem in desperate need of addressing, according to 【 - Free Stock Market Strategy Classes 】 interviews with scientists and space traffic experts.
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For those managing satellites, congestion in space can be a nightmare. It’s common for a satellite operator to receive a dozen or more alerts per day about potential collisions.
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In one incidentthis year, for example, a NASA weather satellite narrowly missed colliding with a defunct Russian rocket by less than 65 feet (20 meters),according to LeoLabs.
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For the most part, an object must belarger than a tennis ballto be tracked. The remaining objects are too small to reflect light or in distant areas of orbit that are difficult to observe directly.
“Even with today’s best sensors, there are limits to what can be reliably ‘seen’ or tracked, and smaller space debris is often untrackable,” said Bob Hall, director of special projects at COMSPOC Corp., a space traffic software company.
But small objects can still pose significant threats. In orbit, objects whirl around so fast that even a fleck of paint is capable of smashing through metal, according toNASA. That means any piece of junk left in space is deeply concerning — and potentially catastrophic.
Different regions of Earth’s orbit have their own levels of congestion and risk. Low-Earth orbit, which extends to around 1,200 miles (2,000 kilometers ) above the planet’s surface, is by far the most crowded.
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If a ripple of explosions happened in low-Earth orbit, it could threaten astronauts’ lives, halt rocket launches and lead to the destruction of all the satellite technology present there.
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But the picture changes rapidlyat higher orbits. At nearly 500 miles (800 kilometers), it would take at least a century for a piece of debris to be naturally dragged out of space. At more than 621 miles (1,000 kilometers), the process would take thousands of years.
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“The most dangerous place where this (Kessler Syndrome-like event) could happen is in GEO,” said Reddy, the University of Arizona researcher. “Because we have no way of cleaning it up in a quick way.”
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But while the drama in “Gravity” unfolded over an hour and a half, a real-life Kessler Syndrome scenario would likely take years — or decades — to play out, experts said.
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“As soon as we’re predicting into the future, we have to make assumptions,” Frueh said. “Every model is wrong — (but) some are useful.”
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“What keeps me up,” said Dan Oltrogge, chief scientist and director of COMSPOC Corp.’s Center for Space Standards and Innovation,“is that the data is not accurate enough to allow you to actually avoid the thing you think you’re avoiding.”
Given that “Kessler Syndrome” is not an instantaneous event, scientists are debating whether the phenomenon could already be in motion. Kessler’s thought experiment asks researchers to consider whether — even if all rocket launches ceased — collisions in space would still escalate the number of objects in orbit. And it’s not clear if that point has been reached.
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“I think it’s confusing for the public that different entities do not agree,” she said. “The concept itself is just not as clean and crisp as you would think.”
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Frueh said, “I’m pessimistic … that we will act timely enough to not have economic damage in the process.”
Dr. Nilton Renno, a professor of climate and space sciences and engineering at the University of Michigan, said that he is optimistic by nature. But the situation in Earth orbit reminds him of the ecological woes underway here on our home planet.
“The analogy that I like to think about space debris is plastic in the oceans,” he said. “We used to think that the oceans are infinite, and we throw in trash and plastic, and now we realize — no, those are finite resources. And we are causing huge damage if we are not careful about what we do.”
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One is cleanup technology: Companies and government initiatives are seeking to develop ways to drag debris out of orbit, such as the Drag Augmentation Deorbiting Subsystem, orADEO, developed by the European Space Agency and tech company High Performance Space Structure Systems, or HPS GmbH. The prototype braking sail was successfully deployed from the ION satellite inDecember 2022, according to ESA.
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Perhaps more practical, Renno said, is for individual nations to adopt laws for space stakeholders. And he believes the United States should take a leadership role in that process.
“I think the biggest concern is the lack of regulation,” he said. “I think having some norms and guidelines that (are) put forward by the industry will help a lot.”
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