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It would take another five days, and the loss of nearly 30 settlements, before he promised a military response. There was no visit to the region to meet the tens of thousands of evacuees, no declaration of martial law.
In March, after theterror attack at the Crocus City concert hallin Moscow, Russia’s deadliest in decades, it took Putin more than 24 hours to address the nation. Despite a claim of responsibility from ISIS-K, he continued to insist that Ukraine, and the West had played a role. The US had in fact warned Russia an attack could be imminent. Putin never visited the site of the attack, or survivors in hospital.
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“He is not good at resolving crises,” Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat who resigned two years ago in protest over the war in Ukraine, and is still living outside Russia, told 【 - Free Daily Stock Market Updates 】. “It’s risky, it’s not predictable. Putin likes comfort, he likes it when he is making the crisis for others, when he controls the situation.”
Experts say Russia’s military response in Kursk has somewhat mirrored the fumbling reactions of its president.
“The initial response when they got over the shock of what was happening would have been who have we got in the cupboard left to defend,” retired Australian Major General Mick Ryan, the author of a new book “The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire,” told 【 - Free Daily Stock Market Updates 】. “Whether it’s conscripts, whether it’s understrength battalions from the Ukrainian theater, or strategic reserves.”
Battlefield accounts have backed up the sense that a motley selection of Russian troops were rushed in, as Moscow grappled with the dilemma of how to balance defending its own soil with keeping up the slow momentum on the eastern front. Ukrainian officials said some troops were redeployed from Kharkiv region and the southern front. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov claimed early on that his special forces unit, the Akhmat brigade, had been deployed. Naval infantry officers from the Black Sea fleet in Crimea are also involved.
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“The decision will be Putin’s: What is the most dangerous to him? Ukrainians in Kursk or not succeeding in the Donbas. I think at the moment he’s decided that it’s more dangerous to not make this progress in the Donbas than to throw everything at Kursk.”
Experts agree the Kursk incursion has not fundamentally changed Putin’s overarching strategy of attrition – to exhaust Ukraine, and try to outlast its allies. And yet, Ukraine’s surprise move has emboldened those who had previously questioned the West’s policy of limiting certain types of military aid, and their use inside Russia.
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“The entire naïve, illusory concept of so-called red lines regarding Russia, which dominated the assessment of the war by some of our partners, has crumbled these days somewhere near Sudzha,” he told a gathering of Ukrainian diplomats, referring to a Russian town that Ukrainian troops had occupied.
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His point is that Western fears that Russia may interpret the use of American or British long-range missiles on its soil as a conventional threat worthy of a nuclear response – Russian nuclear doctrine does allow for this – are now more remote than ever, given its lack of a coherent military response to its first foreign occupation since World War II.
“The current NATO strategy for helping Ukraine is a strategy for defeat. It is just a strategy for perpetuating war and allowing Russia to wait us all out,” said Ryan. “We need a fundamental reassessment.”
Former Russian diplomat Bondarev argues Putin’s own reaction serves as further proof that the West needs to formulate a more robust response to Putin’s aggression.
“When some Westerners say we shouldn’t corner Putin because he will become a cornered rat and will fight back with all his might,” he told 【 - Free Daily Stock Market Updates 】. “Now we see that when he’s really presented with a crisis, he’s not a cornered rat, he’s just like an imposter.
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