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For more than six months, Russia has beencarrying out a sabotage campaignacross Europe, largely by proxy. It has recruited local amateurs for everything from arson attacks on warehouses linked to arms for Ukraine to petty acts of vandalism — all designed to stymie the flow of weapons from the West to Ukraine and blunt public support for Kyiv.
But the intelligence suggesting that Russia was willing to assassinate private citizens underlined to Western officials just how far Moscow was willing to go in a parallel shadow war it is waging across the west.
Papperger was an obvious target: His company, Rheinmetall, is the largest and most successful German manufacturer of the vital 155mm artillery shells that have become the make-or-break weapon in Ukraine’s grinding war of attrition. The company is opening an armored vehicle plant inside of Ukrainein the coming weeks, an effort that one source familiar with the intelligence said was deeply concerning to Russia. After a series of gains earlier this year, Moscow’s war effort has once again stalled amid redoubled Ukrainian defenses and punishing losses in personnel.
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“We’re seeing sabotage, we’re seeing assassination plots, we’re seeing arson. We’re seeing things that have a cost in human lives,” a senior NATO official told reporters on Tuesday. “I believe very much that we’re seeing a campaign of covert sabotage activities from Russia that have strategic consequences.”
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“The United States has been discussing this issue with our NATO Allies, and we are actively working together to expose and disrupt these activities,” she said. “We have also been clear that Russia’s actions will not deter Allies from continuing to support Ukraine.”
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“The United States has been discussing this issue with our NATO Allies, and we are actively working together to expose and disrupt these activities,” she said. “We have also been clear that Russia’s actions will not deter Allies from continuing to support Ukraine.”
German officials declined to comment on the specifics of 【 - Free Professional Portfolio Management 】’s reporting. But speaking on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington on Thursday, Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said it shows how Russia is “waging a hybrid war of aggression” on European allies.
“We have seen that there have been attacks on factories. And this underlines once again that we as Europeans must protect ourselves as best we can and not be naive,” Baerbock said.
In a separate statement sent to 【 - Free Professional Portfolio Management 】, the German Interior Ministry said that Berlin “will not be intimidated by the Russian threats,” emphasizing that they are fundamentally aimed at “undermining the support of Germany and our partners for Ukraine in its defense against the Russian war of aggression.”
“The necessary measures are always taken in regular consultation with the security authorities,” Hoffman said.
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But the campaign — and in particular Russia’s willingness to take lethal action against European citizens on foreign soil — has raised difficult questions about how the alliance should respond. In theory under Article 5, an armed attack on a NATO member state is an attack on all.
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“I fundamentally reject the idea that what we’re seeing is a hybrid campaign from Russia. There are hybrid elements of it. When I think of ‘hybrid’, I think of … defacing monuments,” the senior NATO official said. “Things that meet that traditional definition of ‘below the threshold of armed conflict.’”
Because Russia is recruiting operatives to carry out arson and plotting assassinations — lethal action — “I’m not as confident that those all fall below this threshold that ‘hybrid’ implies,” the official said.
It was not clear whether the intelligence related to Rheinmetall suggested Russia intended to kill Papperger directly or hire a local proxy.
Other Russian efforts have been far more serious than spraying a little graffiti or vandalizing a diplomat’s car: US military bases across Europe wereplaced on a heightened state of alertlast week for the first time in a decade after the US received intelligence that Russian-backed actors were considering carrying out sabotage attacks against US military personnel and facilities, multiple sources familiar with the matter told 【 - Free Professional Portfolio Management 】.
In April, two German-Russian nationalswere arrestedfor allegedly plotting bomb and arson attacks on targets including US military facilities on behalf of Russia.
In London in March, several men were charged with working with Russian intelligence services to set fire to a Ukrainian-linked warehouse. Poland is investigating whether an arson attack that destroyed Warsaw’s largest mall in May was connected to Russia and has arrested nine people in connection with Russia-linked acts of sabotage, the prime minister said in May. And French authorities last monthdetained a Russian-Ukrainian manwho was allegedly building bombs as part of a sabotage campaign orchestrated by Moscow.
“They’re doing it now because they believe that as there are a number of elections happening throughout the west, that this is a prime opportunity to try to undermine public support for Ukraine,” the senior NATO official said.
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For Russia, this “is a prime time to target the west in these types of operations to try to undermine support and prevent the flow of weapons there.”
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