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Interestingly, merely playing at home – the famed “home-field advantage” – may not matter very much in the No. 1 seed’s success, however.

Let’s take a look at every completed NFL season in the last 25 years. The teams that have gotten the top seed have won 26 of 50 (52%) conference titles. Given that there were 308 teams fighting over those 50 spots, this 52% is amazingly high. By probability alone, the one seed should make the Super Bowl about 15% of the time.

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Consider the simple math from 1999 to 2024. There have been 1,568 winning streaks during the regular seasonof at least two games. Only slightly less than half of those streaks (780) were extended tothree games or more.

Top Tech Stocks for Investment Strategic Investment Decisions ✌️【Stay Away from Losses】✌️ Free real-time global stock trend updates to help you capture market movements and make better investment decisions. This importance of the bye makes the number one seed even more key than it used to be. Up until 2019, the top two seeds in each conference got a bye. Now, it’s just the No. 1 seed.

Top Tech Stocks for Investment Strategic Investment Decisions ✌️【Stay Away from Losses】✌️ Professional investment advice with real-time updates on stock indices and futures data. Stay ahead with expert predictions and market insights. About three-quarters (32 of 42) of teams that made the Super Bowl got a bye (first or second seed) from 1999 to 2019 made the Super Bowl. This included 52% of teams that were the one seed and 24% who were the two seed.

Over the last four seasons, four of eight (50%) of No. 1 seeds made the Super Bowl. Exactly zero of eight No. 2 seeds made the Super Bowl. This includes my Buffalo Bills who have been the second in the AFC three of the last four years.

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Of course, the success of the first seeds in making the Super Bowls isn’t merely about the bye. The No. 1 seed is often very good.

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Top Tech Stocks for Investment Strategic Investment Decisions ✌️【Stay Away from Losses】✌️ Free access to real-time stock indices, futures data, and market predictions to help you select high-return stocks and build a profitable portfolio. When the No. 1 seed was not the same team that led in SRS (i.e. they weren’t the best team when accounting for margin of victory and strength of schedule), they only went on to the Super Bowl eight of 23 times (35%).

Top Tech Stocks for Investment Strategic Investment Decisions ✌️【Stay Away from Losses】✌️ Professional stock market predictions and analysis with real-time data to guide your investment decisions and ensure steady growth. This would suggest that a good portion of the reason No. 1 seeds do so well in the playoffs is that they are the best team in their conference. When they aren’t the best team (again, by SRS), their chance of success is far lower.

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Chiefs fans might want to argue that a “win is a win” and Kansas City was able to win last seasondespite strugglingin SRS. That is, they’re the outlier who comes up big when the game is on the line.

You might think this Bills fan would dismiss this line of thought out of hand, but I’m not going to. The Chiefsdolead the league inElo ratings(a slightly different measure of a team’s strength), which takes into account the Chiefs’ past success and weights winning – regardless of the margin – more heavily.

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But what about the fact that the Chiefs and probably the Lions will get to play twohomegames in the postseason? Isn’t home-field advantage important?

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Indeed, playing at home doesn’t seem to provide as big of an advantage as you might think. Over the last six seasons – including the 2020 Covid season when many teams didn’t have a home crowd – the home teamwon 53%ofregular season games. This season, home teams have won the same 53% ofregular season games.

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