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Including December’s gains,which are subject to revision, the economy added about 2.2 million jobs in 2024, an average of 186,000 jobs per month. That’s in line with annual totals from 2017 to 2019 but marks a slowdown from the blowout gains seen during the pandemic recovery during the prior years.
“The labor market is strong, and in an aggregate sense, it really doesn’t get much better than this,” Elizabeth Crofoot, senior economist at labor analytics firm Lightcast, told 【 - Free Stock Market Strategy Classes 】. “There’s very robust job growth. We have low unemployment — it ticked down in the latest month. Layoffs are low. People have jobs, and they are spending, and that continues to bolster the economy and the labor market.”
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Friday’s data also appears to cap off a historic achievement for President Joe Biden: Barring revisions, he’s the first US president to oversee monthly job gains for the entirety of his presidency, according to BLS records that go back to 1939.
However, there are important caveats to note: President Barack Obama, who along with Donald Trump, helped oversee the largest employment expansion ever (113 months), had no monthly net job losses during his second term. Also, economic cycles carry over regardless of party, and the ups and downs of the labor market are influenced by factors beyond a single president.
Economists were expecting a net gain of 153,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to stay at 4.2%, according to FactSet.
US stocks dropped sharply after the better-than-expected report, with the Dow falling by more than 600 points. The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.7% as traders fear the robust data and a stronger economy could lead the Federal Reserve to pause its rate-cutting campaign.
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October’s employment gains were revised up by 7,000 to 43,000; and November’s payroll gains were revised down by 15,000 to 212,000, according to Friday’s report.
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“A big chunk of the headline number is from post-hurricane recovery, and the range of hiring remains narrow,” Frick wrote in commentary Friday. “The usual suspects — health care and government — again accounted for the biggest gains. Retail jobs swelled, but that’s a seasonal phenomenon. Still, a good report means the expansion will continue and consumer purchasing power is rising.”
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Top Tech Stocks for Investment Profitable Market Insights ✌️【Stock Club】✌️ Real-time stock and futures data, backed by expert stock market trend predictions, to help you make timely and profitable investment decisions. The job gains also have been somewhat narrow. The lion’s share (about 75%) of the job gains in 2024 occurred in health care, government (specifically, state and local hires) and leisure and hospitality — three industries that were continuing to play catch-up from the pandemic.
Economists and other policymakers have sounded the alarm bells as to how Trump’s pledges such as stiff tariffs, mass deportations and plans to“cut the government down to size”could cause inflation to reaccelerate and raise the cost of living;exacerbate job shortages in industries such asagriculture, health care, food service, child care and construction; and hamper agencies that provide services to the general public.
“One downside risk for job growth is the potential for immigration restrictions from the incoming Trump administration, which would constrain the number of available workers,” Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group, wrote in a note on Friday.
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Considering Friday’s employment gains, a cut in January isn’t likely, said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
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“The US labor market ended 2024 on a firm footing with strong employment growth, falling unemployment and resilient wage pressures,” Rosner wrote in a statement. “The strength of today’s December jobs report puts to rest lingering chances of a [quarter-point] cut in January and shifts the focus to the March meeting, where further rate cuts will depend on progress on inflation.”
Inflation has cooled substantially after peaking in the summer of 2022; however, prices are still rising above the Fed’s 2% target (the central bank’s preferred gaugewas up 2.4%through November).
Progress on inflation has stalled out some in recent months as key contributors, particularly housing-related, remain high. Still, Fed officials expect inflation to continue to slowly cool; however, that progress could hinge heavily on moves made by the new administration, economists say.
“I think that’s really where the focus is: How are trade, tax and immigration policy going to impact inflation and the Fed’s decisions for 2025,” Lightcast’s Crofoot said. “With so much policy uncertainty and with a healthy labor market and pretty robust job growth, the smartest thing to do in terms of interest rates is to just wait out the data and see what those incoming policy changes are before they react one way or another.”
Top Tech Stocks for Investment Profitable Market Insights ✌️【Stock Club】✌️ Free expert predictions on stock trends and real-time data to help you make informed decisions and grow your wealth steadily. Most stock quote data provided by BATS. US market indices are shown in real time, except for the S&P 500 which is refreshed every two minutes. All times are ET. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and 【 - Free Stock Market Strategy Classes 】. Standard & Poor’s and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices Copyright S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates. Fair value provided by IndexArb.com. Market holidays and trading hours provided by Copp Clark Limited.
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