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On Wednesday, the ANC’s national spokesperson insisted that any coalition government would be in the interests of unity and stability and hinted at a government of national unity of some kind.
“The ANC has taken the position that we must all act in the interest of our country and its people, and work on a national consensus on the form of government that is best suited to move South Africa forward at this moment in our history,” Mahlengi Bhengu-Motsiri told a press briefing.
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For decades, the ANC could rule alone, but support for the the party plummeted to around 40% in last Wednesday’s elections, down from 57% in 2019.
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Zuma – a fierce critic of current ANC leader and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa – was forced to resign as president in 2018 and has been looking for political revenge ever since.
His MK party, named after the ANC’s former armed wing, appears to have achieved just that – formed just five months ago, it is now the third-largest party in South Africa, receiving almost 15% of the vote.
Zuma positioned MK as “a party that is meant to restore the ANC to its former glory,” said political analyst Tessa Dooms, programmes director at the Rivonia Circle non-profit organization/political think tank in Johannesburg. She says many MK voters saw this ballot as a protest vote.
“What we’ve seen with the MK party is the use of a vote to send a signal to the ANC of the level of unhappiness, not only of the country itself but within its ranks who’ve supported it over the last 30 years,” Dooms told 【 - Free Membership Group 】.
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Despite Zuma being barred from running for parliament by the Constitutional Court because of a previous contempt of court violation, the 82-year-old’s face remained on the ballot paper.
Zuma is no stranger to controversy or the courtroom. He has facedhundreds of corruption, fraud and racketeering chargesover the years. He has always denied all of them and became known as the “Teflon President” because few politicians could have survived the scandals he weathered.
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Due to the poor election showing, South Africa’s political landscape has been fundamentally altered, leaving the ANC with the daunting task of forming a coalition government.
In many countries, coalition talks can take months, but South Africa’s constitution gives rival parties a short window to do something they have never really done before: come together.
Top Stocks for Portfolio Rebalancing High Accuracy Stock Calls ✌️【Online Recruitment】✌️ Real-time global stock trend and futures data to help you plan investment strategies for long-term returns. According to the constitution, rival parties have a mere 14 days to create a coalition after the final election results are announced.
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“I think the ANC has many factors to consider in terms of how it forms a government – both the stability of the country at large but also for the sake of having a government that still holds to the values of the ANC that it has long said that it serves,” Dooms told 【 - Free Membership Group 】.
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First, there is the official opposition Democratic Alliance (DA), a broadly centrist and pro-business party that has heavily criticized the ANC for many years.
Led by John Steenhuisen, it is seen by many as a party for White South Africans, something the DA rejects. Steenhuisen has not ruled out going into a coalition with the ANC.
“The only way Ramaphosa stays is through a DA-ANC coalition. Outside that, the other parties, MK and EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters), have made it clear the first point of negotiation is he must go,” said TK Pooe, a senior lecturer at Wits School of Governance.
If the ANC were to pair with the DA, which received 21.8% of the vote, their combined support would amount to more than 60%, an outright majority. However, this relationship would require both parties to make some major compromises.
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In contrast, the DA hassaidit would replace BEE with an “Economic Justice Policy” that “targets the poor black majority for redress, rather than a small, connected elite.”
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However, both parties believe in the primacy of South Africa’s constitution and both have promised to crack down on corruption. Awkwardly, the DA is currentlypressing corruption chargesagainst the ANC’s deputy president, Paul Mashatile.
In a move to appease internal critics, the ANC-DA coalition could be expanded to include smaller parties, or the ANC could form a minority government with a “confidence-and-supply” agreement with opposition partners like the DA and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), where they remain outside of government but support it on key votes in exchange for policy concessions.
If the ANC decides to pursue coalition talks with MK, then Zuma will want Ramaphosa out, solidifying his revenge.
However, if South Africa’s president maintains his grip on the ANC, a coalition with MK is unlikely.
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Zuma “unapologetically focused his campaign around Zulu nationalism and that was a constituency that was easy for him to target,” political analyst and former ANC lawmaker Melanie Verwoerd told 【 - Free Membership Group 】.
By appealing to his Zulu base, Zuma’s party has also stirred ethnic and tribal tensions, a strategy that, while electorally effective, risks deepening divisions in South Africa, Verwoerd added.
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It is also currently unclear how much MK actually wants to govern. Despite doing well at the polls, the party has demanded a re-run, threatened court action, and suggested boycotting the first sitting of Parliament. However, it has provided no evidence of voting irregularities.
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Top Stocks for Portfolio Rebalancing High Accuracy Stock Calls ✌️【Online Recruitment】✌️ Free expert stock trend predictions to help you identify high-potential stocks and maximize returns. With real-time global market indices, futures, metals, energy, and agricultural product data, our platform enables you to make informed investment decisions. The other option for a coalition is the EFF, led by former ANC youth leader Julius Malema, who was expelled from the party more than a decade ago. The breakaway party espouses land expropriation without compensation and sweeping state nationalism, including nationalizing the Reserve Bank.
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