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It is foolhardy to predict who Trump will select. If we know anything, it is that Trump loves to be unpredictable, and there is always a real possibility he will turn to a running mate nobody has even considered.

Initially, there were rumors that Trump was going to be thinkingoutsideof the conventional Republican bench. With an eye toward broadening the Republican coalition, Trump could be considering Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, a Black American who is considered one of the most promising voices for the future of the GOP. With polls showing that Trump remainslargely unpopularamong Latino and Black voters despite faring better among these groups than he did when he left office, Trump could decide on Scott as a way to help strengthen his standing among constituencies that have traditionally gone to the Democrats.

But in recent weeks, the conversation has shifted to three others. As of now, the top choices seem to include North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who may be this election’s version of former Vice President Mike Pence —  a White male conservative who won’t take up too much air space. Burgum can play to a broad swath of the GOP in the Trump era and compensate for the former president’s volatility and unpredictability.

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Just as he understood and stoked the deep polarization of American politics, Trump understands another fundamental truth: Vice presidential candidates don’t tend to determine the outcome of elections. Although pundits (myself included) love to weigh up all the different contenders, it is difficult to think of a VP pick who drastically changed the results — even when President George H.W. Bush’s second in command, Dan Quayle,misspelled “potato”at a six-grade spelling bee in 1992. The only recent exception might have been Sen. John McCain’s 2008 running mate, Sarah Palin, although the recession and then-President George W. Bush’s low approval ratings contributed more to the Republican nominee’s loss.

Ultimately, Trump is no doubt looking for someone who will be totally loyal, someone who will go on television and say whatever is necessary to say, and someone who will not draw the public’s attention away from him. Trump certainly doesn’t feel the need to lean on anyone else to sell his populist and dystopian vision of America, given his own track record, love of political combat and ability to single-handedly launch devastating attacks against his political enemies. Tag team matches don’t interest him.

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It’s likely Trump is thinking the same way this time around. And regardless of who he names as his running mate, one thing is for sure — as the GOP prepares to meet next week, it is and will continue to be all about Trump.

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