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But many analysts have suggested a lack of foreknowledge has not stopped the group from trying to associate itself with attacks in the past. An extreme example is its brief attempt to claim the October 2017 mass shooting at a Las Vegas festival as its own operation.

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“There’s no question it was IS inspired,” said Edmund Fitton-Brown, senior adviser to the Counter Extremism Project. “So why would they not grab it gratefully? It seems an unmissable opportunity to claim a direct hit on the ‘biggest Satan.’”

Peter Neumann, professor of security studies at King’s College London, said: “It would be very unusual for ISIS not to claim this attack, given that the attacker openly declared his allegiance to the group andeven put an ISIS flagon his truck.”

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Just as the Assad regime fell in Syria, the Biden administration announced that it had hit 75 ISIS targets on December 8, using B-52 bombers, F-15 jets, and A-10 warplanes. Eleven days later,US Central Command saida precision strike had killed an ISIS leader in Syria, Abu Yusif, aka Mahmud, in Deir Ezzor province.

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However, Neumann added this possible disruption had not stopped ISIS from publishing its so-called weekly “newspaper” al-Naba, so it was curious the group could not simply publish a claim on social media about the New Orleans atrocity. He said he expected to see at least a reference to the attack in al-Naba, published Thursdays. (The New Orleans attack was in the early hours of Wednesday, so just prior to the last publication).

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Unusually for an ISIS supporter, however, he was a veteran who had served in the US military in Afghanistan for about a year, which might have left the terror group squeamish about a close association.

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